Guiding question (from a parent): How can we learn to make decisions that must be made even when all of the information we would like isn’t available to us, or our success is not guaranteed? This is a non-issue academically, however, I believe it’s important to discuss the topic to avoid codependency, and instead, build up confidence + the skill of taking reasonable risks, and do so gracefully even outside the academic sphere.

“Because you are human and not a computer, you can’t think logically and rationally without also thinking emotionally. It’s in your best interest to get a handle on these slippery, omnipresent things called ‘feelings,’ so you’re making productive, helpful decisions.” – Jim Delisle and Judy Galbraith

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself — and you are the easiest person to fool.” – Richard Feynman

For intellectually driven individuals, making decisions in uncertain situations or with incomplete information can be especially challenging due to their heightened sensitivity to complexity and nuance. Additionally, they may struggle with a strong desire to be “right” or avoid being “wrong,” even when such concerns are not the most useful guide in navigating the decision-making process.

Decision-Making 101

  • We all make choices from an unarticulated place.
  • We tend to favor decisions that require less mental effort, often relying on intuition (System 1) rather than engaging in deeper, more deliberate reasoning (System 2). This bias towards ease can influence our choices, even when more thoughtful deliberation would lead to better outcomes.
  • The concept of “miles per hour” obviously doesn’t apply to how the brain processes information, but consider this metaphor: Conscious thought operates at an estimated 100-150 miles per hour. Subconscious thought? An estimated 100,000 mph.
  • 6 options is where most people cap/tap out. One of my favorite authors when it comes to decision making, Daniel Kahneman, discusses how humans have cognitive limits when it comes to processing choices. When faced with too many options (the “paradox of choice”), people often experience decision fatigue and choose to simplify or limit their options. 

Improved Decision-Making

Balance Rationality and Intuition

Effective decision-making requires both intuitive (System 1) and rational (System 2) thinking. Trust your instincts when appropriate, but use logic and evidence to verify and refine your choices. Seek diverse perspectives and mentors to challenge your assumptions and gain insights that complement your own, helping you avoid biases and make more informed decisions.

Develop a Tolerance for Ambiguity

In many real-world scenarios, complete information is rarely available (researchers call these “wicked learning” environments). Embracing ambiguity and uncertainty is part of the decision-making process. School is sometimes one of the only environments where someone gets a “kind learning environment” with clear variables, inputs, and outputs. In most other situations, feedback is delayed, unclear, or both. Develop the resilience to cope with uncertainty.

Manage Perfectionism

Waiting for “perfect” information or guaranteed success may lead to missed opportunities. Learn to accept reasonable levels of risk and imperfection in decision-making. Decisions are opportunities for learning and personal growth, regardless of the outcome. Reflect on past decisions to extract lessons and improve.

Utilize Systems Thinking

Consider how different variables interact and influence each other within the broader context of a decision. Anticipate different scenarios and outcomes based on varying levels of information or potential developments. This can help you prepare contingency plans (If… then…) and adapt more effectively. Sharpen your ability to analyze all kinds of situations critically (not just those given to you as an assignment). Practice breaking down complex issues into manageable components and evaluating evidence and assumptions.

Common Decision-Making Tools

Decision trees, risk matrices, SWOT analysis and the WRAP process are explored below with examples. These tools can provide structure and clarity to your decision-making process.

Decision Trees

Decision trees are a way to visually map out decisions and their potential outcomes. They are helpful when you need to make choices and want to see how different options could play out.

Example:

Imagine you have to decide whether or not to join a club. 

  1. Decision Node (Join the Club):
    • Option A: Join the club
    • Option B: Don’t join the club
  2. Chance Node (Club Activities):
    • If you join the club (Option A):
      • Activities are interesting (Probability 0.7):
        • Outcome A1: Enjoy club activities and make new friends
        • Outcome A2: Learn new skills and have fun
      • Activities are not interesting (Probability 0.3):
        • Outcome A3: Get bored and quit the club
        • Outcome A4: Decide to stay but not enjoy it much
  3. Chance Node (Free Time):
    • If you don’t join the club (Option B):
      • Have lots of free time (Probability 0.6):
        • Outcome B1: Use free time for hobbies or relaxation
      • Get bored with free time (Probability 0.4):
        • Outcome B2: Wish you had joined a club to have more activities
Risk Matrix

A risk matrix is a tool used to assess and prioritize risks based on their likelihood and potential impact. It helps individuals and groups make informed decisions by visualizing and categorizing risks according to severity.

Example:

Let’s say you’re planning a trip.

  1. Identify Risks: List potential risks associated with the trip, such as bad weather or transportation issues.
  2. Likelihood Assessment: Estimate how likely each risk is to occur. For example:
    • Bad weather (Likelihood: Moderate)
    • Transportation issues (Likelihood: Low)
  3. Impact Assessment: Assess the potential impact of each risk if it were to happen. For example:
    • Bad weather (Impact: High) – might cancel or delay the trip
    • Transportation issues (Impact: Medium) – might cause delays in arrival
  4. Create a Risk Matrix: Draw a matrix with likelihood on one axis (low, moderate, high) and impact on the other axis (low, medium, high). Place each identified risk in the appropriate cell based on its likelihood and impact.
  5. Prioritize Risks: Focus on risks that fall into the high likelihood and high impact quadrant of the matrix. These are risks that are more likely to occur and would have a significant impact if they did.
  6. Mitigate Risks: Develop strategies to mitigate or reduce the likelihood and impact of high-priority risks. For instance, have a backup plan for bad weather, confirm transportation arrangements in advance, and ensure health precautions are in place.
SWOT Analysis

SWOT analysis is a strategic planning tool used to identify and evaluate the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats involved in a project or decision.

Example:

Let’s say you’re considering whether to run for student council. Here’s how you might use a SWOT analysis:

  1. Strengths
    • List your personal strengths that would be beneficial for being on student council.
      Example:

      • Good communication skills
      • Leadership experience in other activities
      • Strong organizational skills/creativity
  2. Weaknesses
    • Identify areas where you may have weaknesses or challenges that could affect your ability to perform effectively on student council.
      Example:

      • Limited experience in public speaking
      • Difficulty managing time between schoolwork and extracurricular activities
      • Shyness in large groups
  3. Opportunities
    • Consider external opportunities that could benefit you if you were on student council.
      Example:

      • Opportunity to represent student interests and make a difference in school decisions
      • Chance to develop leadership abilities and build a stronger resume for college applications
      • Potential to meet new people and form valuable connections
  4. Threats
    • Identify potential threats or challenges you might face as a student council member.
      Example:

      • Strong competition from popular candidates
      • Balancing student council responsibilities with academic workload and other extracurricular activities
      • Potential conflicts with friends or classmates over decisions made on student council
  5. Application of SWOT Analysis
    • After completing the SWOT analysis, review the findings to understand your readiness and suitability for running for student council.
    • Use the analysis to develop strategies to capitalize on your strengths, address weaknesses, take advantage of opportunities, and mitigate threats.
WRAP Decision-Making Process

The WRAP decision-making process (from Chip and Dan Heath’s framework) is a structured approach designed to help individuals make more effective decisions by considering a broader range of options and potential outcomes. 

Widen Your Options: Instead of narrowing down to one or two choices too quickly, explore a wider range of possibilities.

Reality-Test Your Assumptions: Challenge your assumptions about each option by gathering more information and considering different perspectives.

Attain Distance Before Deciding: Step back from the immediate emotions and pressures of the decision to gain clarity and perspective.

Prepare to Be Wrong: Recognize that even after thoughtful consideration, decisions can still be uncertain or require adjustments.

Example:

Decision: Choosing which extracurricular activity to join next semester.

  1. Widen Your Options:
  • Instead of immediately choosing between sports or drama club, consider other options like debate team, art club, or volunteering.
  1. Reality-Test Your Assumptions:
  • Gather information about each option: attend club meetings, talk to current members, and consider how each activity aligns with your interests and goals.
  1. Attain Distance Before Deciding:
  • Take time to reflect on how each activity fits into your schedule, what skills you want to develop, and how it might impact your academic performance or social life.
  1. Prepare to Be Wrong:
  • Understand that your interests may change or the demands of the activity might differ from your expectations. Be open to adjusting your decision if needed.

Closing Thoughts

When I work with clients for life skills and creativity coaching sessions, I casually use the below prompts. At first, these can be helpful for honing one’s decision-making skills around a project. As one gains skill with decision-making in low risk situations, confidence seems to transfer to other areas of life.  

Questions For Making Decisions:

Round 1:

  • What is your typical approach to decision-making?
  • What alternative decision-making strategies are available to you? Which methods are you interested in exploring?
  • Which factors will have the greatest impact on your decision-making process?
  • What information or knowledge is essential for you to make an excellent decision?
  • How would you define an ideal decision?

Round 2:

Values: What are your top three values? Which decision would be most in harmony with your values? What is your intuition communicating to you about this?

Counsel: What are the opinions of your key friends or mentors? Do those opinions matter for this situation?

Cost: What would be the investment in terms of time and resources to pursue this? What would be the consequences if you choose not to pursue this? What are the costs of indecision or allowing random circumstances to dictate?

Rationale: What are the advantages and disadvantages of each option? Which option is most beneficial for where you want to go?

Negative drives: What fears or inner motivations are influencing your response? How can you eliminate these factors to make a clearer decision?

By integrating the above strategies into your decision-making approach, you can navigate uncertainty more effectively and make informed choices that align with your goals and values, even when complete information is not available. Remember, decision-making is a skill that improves with practice and reflection.

Go Deeper/Resources

“Incognito: The Secret Lives of the Brain” by David Eagleman

“Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman

“Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work” by Chip and Dan Heath

Here’s their PDF: https://heathbrothers.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/The_WRAP_Process_one_pager.pdf 

Simple Decision-Making Graphic Organizer: https://worksheetworks.com/miscellanea/graphic-organizers/decision.html

 



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